Intel shares fell 3.2% in premarket trading on Thursday, extending a recent slide as new UBS data revealed the company lost significant server CPU market share to AMD and Arm. Here’s what the numbers reveal and what they could mean for Intel’s AI future.
UBS reports that total server CPU shipments rose 19% year over year in the first quarter. Intel’s share did not grow as quickly. Its unit share fell by about 3.7 percentage points to 54.9%. AMD’s share increased by 2.3 points to 27.4%, and Arm’s share rose by 1.4 points to 17.7%. In premarket trading, AMD shares fell 2%, and Arm shares dropped 3.8%.
Intel is losing market share, but the overall market is expanding rapidly. UBS estimates that the total market for server CPUs will grow from around $30 billion in 2025 to $170 billion by 2030, driven by increasing demand for AI. As the market grows, Intel’s revenue could still rise even with a smaller share.
Looking ahead, Arm could have a major impact on the server CPU landscape. UBS predicts that Arm’s instruction set could power 40% to 45% of server CPUs by 2030, significantly shifting market dynamics and replacing much of the x86 architecture currently used by Intel and AMD. By that time, Intel and AMD are expected to share the remaining market about equally.
Intel’s stock has more than tripled this year as investors bet on strong demand for server CPUs driven by AI infrastructure. However, the latest data shows that winning this demand is not certain, since two major competitors are also fighting for the same market.
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