Venture Global’s Strong Earnings Can’t Outweigh Gloomy Forecast, but LNG Price Jump Boosts Shares

Venture Global, a leading supplier of liquefied natural gas, reported better-than-expected results for the fourth quarter. However, its weak full-year forecast was largely overlooked as a sharp rise in global LNG prices pushed the company’s shares higher.

The company earned 41 cents per share for the quarter, beating analyst estimates of 35 cents. Revenue almost tripled to $4.45 billion, just above the expected $4.44 billion. Exported cargoes rose sharply to 128, up from 33 a year earlier.

Even with the strong earnings, the company’s outlook disappointed investors. Management expects full-year adjusted EBITDA of $5.2 billion, about 12% less than the $5.93 billion analysts predicted. First-quarter EBITDA guidance of $1.15 to $1.25 billion also missed the $1.86 billion consensus. The company blamed the lower forecast on winter storms and tighter profit margins.The company’s weak outlook was overshadowed by major geopolitical news in the energy sector. The Dutch TTF benchmark price jumped after reports that Iranian drone strikes on Qatari facilities stopped LNG production in one of the world’s top three exporters. About 20% of global LNG supply, mainly from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, passes through the Strait of Hormuz. The halt in traffic there pushed spot prices much higher and boosted shares of LNG producers across the board.

Goldman Sachs pointed out that spot LNG prices had not included much risk from geopolitical tensions before this event. The firm warned that if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, prices could rise even more. In a scenario where supply is halted for a month, Goldman estimates the TTF price could hit 74 euros per megawatt-hour, a level that caused major demand drops during the 2022 European energy crisis.

This jump in share price comes after a tough period for the company since its January 2025 debut on the New York Stock Exchange, which was the biggest energy IPO in more than ten years. The stock had fallen about 60% from the previous week’s close, mainly due to ongoing legal battles with major customers like BP and Shell. Both companies accused Venture Global of breaking contracts by diverting supply to spot markets after Russia invaded Ukraine. So far, the company has had mixed results in arbitration.